Global Maleic Anhydride Supply Chain Restructuring: European Deindustrialization, China’s Capacity Deluge, and the Export Lifeline
I. Europe “Hemorrhaging”: Irreversible Systemic Capacity Withdrawal
In 2026, the European maleic anhydride industry is undergoing a structural collapse.
Huntsman Fully Withdraws. Global chemical giant Huntsman has announced the closure of its Moers, Germany production site, with shutdown to be completed by quarter-end. European customers will henceforth be supplied from the Pensacola and Geismar plants in the United States. Denis Varaksin, Managing Director of DYM Resources, commented: “The entire industry is in crisis mode—everyone is struggling.” He noted that the German plant’s inability to access cheap Russian n-butane was the direct trigger for the shutdown.
This wave of exits is not isolated. Huntsman had previously closed its PU systems plants in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Italy, with its Deggendorf (Germany) and Kings Lynn (UK) plants shut down in parallel. Industry giants including Dow, Covestro, LyondellBasell, and Shell have all signaled adjustments to their European operations. In the European maleic anhydride market, BASF and LANXESS have become the only remaining major local suppliers, supplemented by a handful of small producers in Germany, Italy, and Hungary to maintain basic supply.
How large is the gap? Industry estimates place European maleic anhydride capacity at approximately 450,000–500,000 tonnes/year. This round of exits involves at least 30% of that capacity (roughly 150,000 tonnes/year). Transatlantic replenishment (US → Europe) adds shipping lead times and logistics costs, making it difficult for North American supply to fully replace local production in terms of both timeliness and cost-effectiveness. Europe’s supply-demand gap is becoming the core driver of Chinese maleic anhydride exports.
II. China: From “Domestic Overcapacity” to “Global Supply Hub”
In stark contrast to Europe’s contraction, China’s maleic anhydride capacity is expanding at a historic pace.
A capacity flood is coming. According to JLC (Jin Lian Chuang) statistics, plants scheduled for commissioning in China in 2026 include Shandong Yulong Island, Fuzhou Wanjing (Phase I), Tongxin Petroleum, Rongsheng Petrochemical (Zhoushan), Shandong Hongfeng, Hainan Starlight, and Hainan Tianyin, totaling 1.86 million tonnes/year, potentially pushing total maleic anhydride capacity past 6 million tonnes/year. More conservative estimates from Longzhong Information point to 5 new units adding 950,000 tonnes in 2026; combined with existing capacity, total industry output is projected at 1.85 million tonnes—while newly added downstream consumption capacity stands at only 650,000 tonnes, leaving a net surplus of approximately 300,000 tonnes/year that must be absorbed through exports.
Exports have become a structural necessity, not a temporary buffer. General Administration of Customs data shows maleic anhydride exports reached 168,900 tonnes in January–June 2026, surging 53.88% year-on-year, with April setting an all-time monthly record of 34,300 tonnes. Notably, this growth has not come at the expense of price—export growth is directly linked to product quality and supply stability, with European customers placing greater emphasis on compliance certifications and delivery reliability.
III. Trade Pattern Reshaping: From “One-Way to India” to “Global Diversification”
India’s weighting continues to decline. In H1 2026, exports to India reached 45,800 tonnes (+20.88%), but its share plummeted from 34.55% in the same period of 2025 to 27.14%—a drop of 7.41 percentage points. After front-loaded stockpiling, India has entered a digestion phase with slowing procurement, while the export focus accelerates its westward shift.
Europe emerges as the primary growth engine.
| Destination | Export Volume (tonnes) | YoY Growth | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 14,795 | +129.94% | 8.76% (5th → 2nd) |
| Turkey | 13,584 | +198.68% | 8.04% |
| Saudi Arabia | 10,912 | +114.71% | 6.46% |
| Netherlands | 7,309 | +143.31% | 4.33% |
| Belgium | 5,834 | +75.25% | 3.45% |
Chinese maleic anhydride now reaches over 50 countries and regions. The trade partner structure has shifted from “India dominance” to a multi-polar pattern with Europe as the mainstay, the Middle East as incremental growth, and Southeast Asia as the baseline. This diversification effectively mitigates single-market dependency risks.
IV. Structural Paradox: Domestic Glut Coexists with Overseas Shortage
A profound paradox is taking shape: China’s maleic anhydride industry faces severe domestic overcapacity—butane-based producers have been operating at a loss since July 2025, with capacity utilization rates once dipping as low as 36% in 2026—while global markets (particularly Europe) grapple with supply shortfalls.
The essence of this paradox: domestic demand growth cannot remotely keep pace with capacity expansion, yet overseas capacity withdrawal is outstripping local demand contraction. Domestic pricing is dictated by excess supply, while export trade terms are determined by overseas supply-demand gaps—the two markets are decoupling. For maleic anhydride producers, export channels have escalated from a “supplementary option” to a “survival lifeline.”
V. H2 Outlook: Export Growth Under Pressure, but Structural Opportunities Remain
Headwinds: Base effects (full-year 2025 exports were approximately 230,000 tonnes; high base in H2 will inevitably slow growth rates), global shipping capacity fluctuations, and international trade policy uncertainties.
Tailwinds: ① European capacity withdrawals are permanent—BASF and LANXESS are unlikely to build new plants anytime soon to fill the 150,000-tonne gap left by Huntsman, and the logistics bottlenecks of transatlantic replenishment also constrain how quickly North America can substitute for Europe; ② the concentrated commissioning of new domestic capacity in H2 will intensify oversupply, further forcing producers to expand overseas channels; ③ Middle Eastern (Saudi Arabia +114%) and Southeast Asian market demand continues to ramp up, with ample room for export destination diversification.
At the industry level, two trends warrant attention:
First, certification barriers are becoming an export watershed. The European market’s requirements for ISO, SGS, FAMI-QS, and REACH compliance are growing increasingly stringent. Companies that have secured the full suite of certifications (such as Dayou New Energy) will gain differentiated advantages, while uncertified capacity—even if lower-cost—will struggle to access high-end markets.
Second, the trend toward export destination diversification is irreversible. India’s single-market share has fallen from roughly one-third to under 30%, meaning the impact of any single market’s fluctuations on overall exports is diminishing, and export resilience is markedly strengthening.
Conclusion
The global maleic anhydride supply chain is undergoing a restructuring that transcends the will of any single nation—Europe exits production due to energy costs and feedstock disruptions, China is compelled by a capacity deluge to seek overseas outlets, and exports have become the bridge linking these two major imbalances. The probability of full-year 2026 exports surpassing 300,000 tonnes is relatively high. For companies already equipped with international certifications and mature export channels, this round of global supply chain restructuring presents both challenges and a strategic window to position and upgrade themselves within the global market.
Data Sources: General Administration of Customs (January–June), SCI (Zhuochuang Information), Longzhong Information, JLC (Jin Lian Chuang), DYM Resources
Binzhou Dayou New Energy Development Co., Ltd. | 18 Years of Maleic Anhydride Excellence | www.dayounewenergy.com
(Content generated by AI; for reference only)