Maleic Anhydride Mid-Year Analysis: Quotation Freeze Triggers Supply Squeeze as Export Boom Meets Chronic Overcapacity

H1 2026 Market Review and Outlook

The first half of 2026 saw China’s maleic anhydride industry undergo a sharp divergence. On one side, European capacity exits created an export windfall; on the other, severe domestic overcapacity kept the industry mired in losses. In late July, leading producers simultaneously halted spot quotations, triggering a new phase of supply tightness.

On July 23, Zibo Qixiang Tengda (400,000 t/y n-butane), Huizhou Yuxin (200,000 t/y), and Dongying Qifa (30,000 t/y) simultaneously ceased spot quotations, channeling output into long-term contracts and export orders. Together they control approximately 630,000 t/y of butane-based capacity.

Prices surged: Shandong liquid MA reached RMB 7,600–7,900/ton (+300), solid RMB 8,100–8,300/ton (+350), as per SCI99 July 24 data. Binzhou Dayou New Energy late-July quotations stood at RMB 8,200/ton liquid and RMB 8,600/ton solid. Yet the industry remained unprofitable: n-butane feedstock rose to RMB 6,700–6,920/ton, leaving daily gross margins at -RMB 901/ton (excluding steam co-product).

Industry operating rates fell to 36%, not from weak demand but the exit of benzene-based capacity. Approximately 950,000 t/y of new capacity was planned for 2026, but most projects have been delayed. Exports remain the bright spot, with Europe’s permanent 150,000 t/y supply deficit sustaining demand from India, Turkey, and the UAE.

Outlook: near-term prices firm on supply tightness, but the industry’s chronic overcapacity and deep losses persist. Downstream affordability and new capacity additions constrain upside. About 60% of market participants expect prices to stabilize (SCI99 survey).

Sources: SCI99, ChemNet | Binzhou Dayou New Energy | 18 Years of MA Expertise